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Prediction for CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-17T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26068/-1
CME Note: Halo CME seen primarily to the southwest in association with two separate M5.0+ class solar flares and a strong eruption from Active Region 3633 (S25W73). The eruption is proceeded by another eruption which is impressive in itself; the main eruption starting around 23:18Z as seen in SDO 131 imagery is characterized by a very large scale brightening near Active Region 3363 with rising plasma along the southeastern portion of the active region, widely and quickly moving and opening magnetic field lines seen in SDO 193/171, and a strong post-eruptive arcade signature characterized by intense, regional brightening along the southwest limb in SDO 131. Associated with SEP events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. Arrival signature: A jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 440 km/s, accompanied by a jump in B total to just under 12 nT, an increase in density and rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T16:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T08:25Z (-11.74h, +15.55h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/07/17 23:35Z
Plane of Sky 1: 03:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction; Note CH/Prior CME correction
Plane of Sky 2: 09:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
POS Difference: 5:40
POS Midpoint: 06:10Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.63
Travel Time: ~8.63 * 6:35 = 56:50

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-20T08:25Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 15%

Lead Time: 60.10 hour(s)
Difference: 7.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-07-18T04:01Z

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